Study of the Impact of Economic Factors and Healthcare System Capacity on the Elderly Population in Morocco: A Health Economics Perspective

This study examines the interplay between economic factors (Gross Domestic Product growth, inflation, unemployment) and healthcare capacity (hospital beds, health expenditures) in shaping Morocco’s aging population dynamics. With rapid demographic aging (projected to reach 23.2% by 2050), the research aims to identify policy levers for sustainable social protection and improved elderly well-being.

We employed an ARDL model on annual data (1990-2023) to analyze short- and long-term relationships. Key variables included the elderly population proportion, economic indicators, and health system metrics. Stationarity (ADF, PP, KPSS tests) and cointegration (bounds testing) were verified, with diagnostic checks (Breusch-Godfrey, Jarque-Bera, CUSUM) ensuring robustness.

Results confirm a long-term cointegration relationship, with economic growth (β = 0.32, p < 0.01) and health investments (β = 0.18, p < 0.05) positively influencing elderly well-being, while inflation (β = −0.41, p < 0.01) and unemployment (β = −0.27, p < 0.05) exacerbate vulnerabilities. The error correction term (ECT = −0.145) indicates a 14.52% annual convergence toward equilibrium. Short-term dynamics reveal immediate negative effects of inflation and lagged unemployment impacts.

The results show economic growth and health investments boost elderly well-being, while inflation and unemployment worsen vulnerabilities. Slow equilibrium convergence highlights structural rigidities requiring proactive policies. Hospital beds show mixed effects, suggesting delayed demographic impacts. Integrated policies are crucial to address fiscal pressures from aging, considering Morocco’s regional disparities and informal labor market.

The study underscores the need for integrated policies: (1) expanding healthcare infrastructure, (2) stabilizing inflation and unemployment, and (3) promoting intergenerational equity. Proactive measures—such as incentivized fertility policies and efficient health spending—are critical to mitigate aging-related fiscal pressures. Limitations include data granularity, suggesting future micro-level analyses.